Talk:Demographic trap

Interlanguage link

Does de:Youth bulge resemble the Demographic trap article's content enough to be considered its equivalent over at the German WP? 00:55, 15 August 2006 (UTC) — Preceding unsigned comment added by Wikipeditor (talk • contribs) 20:55, 14 August 2006

Youth bulge exists on the English Wikipedia as a redirect to Population pyramid#Youth bulge. The youth bulge is a feature of the demographic trap, and (in combination with stalled economic growth, scarcity of critical resources, lack of investment capital, etc.) an alleged ingredient of the "trap". Lester Brown and others argue that a population with large numbers of unemployed young men is at risk for political instability, as the young men who lack other opportunities may out of desperation join militias, gangs, criminal enterprise, etc. This makes it all the harder for strapped governments to provide the services and security necessary for development. The economic burden of raising large families also reduces the wealth available for capital formation. However, while the youth bulge is a feature of the demographic trap, and a contributor to it, I would not consider de:Youth bulge to be equivalent enough to be a valid interlanguage link destination from this article. That would be like linking from the Automobile article to the German article for Engine (de:Motor). Sorry about the slow response, I only just stumbled across this article today. --Teratornis (talk) 20:23, 9 March 2011 (UTC)

Gaza

I think the link to Gaza appears to put the blame on blame on the Palestinians. Many would argue that the population of the Gaza Strip will only overwhelm its carrying capacity because the rest of the land was taken by the Israelis, and the former inhabitants of that land were expelled to the Gaza Strip, among other places. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 76.29.56.100 (talk • contribs) 18:06, 20 June 2007

Exponential growth of population eventually overwhelms the carrying capacity of any patch of land, no matter how large. For an interesting exercise, compute the time it would take humans, increasing at just 1% each year, to equal the mass of the observable universe. (A 1% annual growth rate gives a doubling time of about 70 years.) By restricting the inhabitants of Gaza, the Israelis have merely caused that population to hit its limits a bit sooner. Note that Israel itself faces severe resource limits, particularly of energy and fresh water. Economy of Israel says:

• "Relatively poor in natural resources, Israel depends on imports of petroleum, coal, food, uncut diamonds and production inputs, though the country's nearly total reliance on energy imports may change with recent discoveries of large gas reserves off its coast."

Israel is unable to feed itself, despite being a prosperous country able to throw technological inputs at food production. Thus we could argue that the total population of the region is beyond the carrying capacity of the land, irrespective of any unjust distribution of that land. Even the people getting the first choice cannot feed themselves. The only sustainable population growth rate is zero. Any society that hopes to endure must attain that rate, somehow. --Teratornis (talk) 20:07, 9 March 2011 (UTC)

I strongly disagree. I live in Israel and actually, we produce 95% of our own food supply, we have year-round sunlight. We have some gas and oil reserves, we have one of the largest diamond exchange centers in the world, a prospering agriculture technology sector and water supply (irrigation water). Also nearly universal adoption in households of solar energy (sun-drying clothes, sun-heated boilers etc). ...SomethingElse... (talk) —Preceding undated comment added 02:09, 19 October 2015 (UTC)

Lester Brown's argument

Lester Brown discusses the demographic trap in his latest book:

• Brown, Lester R. (2011). World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse. W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN 978-0393080292. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-03-01. Retrieved 2011-03-01.

I'm noting the reference here so I or someone else can use the book as a source for this article. --Teratornis (talk) 00:31, 10 March 2011 (UTC)

The Lead

The Lead paragraph of this article reads like a second paragraph with the first paragraph missing:

"During "stage 2" of the demographic transition, quality of health care improves and death rates fall, but birth rates still remain high, resulting in a period of high population growth...."

No explanation of what "the demographic transition" is or what the stages of it are.^{Problem has been fixed} --Guy Macon (talk) 02:52, 23 November 2011 (UTC)

Demographic failure should redirect to this article

Demographic failure should redirect to this article Ocdncntx (talk) 19:09, 4 July 2023 (UTC)